South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x164f43ce7d33f14d2354498cca82981a89108d89e5307ca5643ba6fa232e5e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc740…217ebacked Over | 48c | 1,011$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 52c | 784.82$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.05 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 57c | 506.53$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.81 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 361.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Over | 10c | 300.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 10c | 299.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 45c | 222.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 57c | 221.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 65c | 204.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 42c | 195.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 160.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 152.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 55c | 138.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 54c | 114.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 43c | 109.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…729cbacked Over | 33c | 80.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafbf…e710backed Over | 45c | 50.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…febdbacked Under | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.