Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-02-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x166ca6127af84f97af25ce12fad67b6f4ca3d6fc95fd1af6769b05361e92d10f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 56c | 8,000$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,520 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 44c | 7,626$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360.41 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 1,895$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 1,407$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…98c1backed No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 45c | 599.97$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 56c | 535$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.35 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 51c | 471.5$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.2 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 4c | 470.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 54c | 405.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 74c | 328$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 35c | 325$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…2eddbacked No | 46c | 308.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 286.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed No | 51c | 249.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 44c | 202.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 44c | 88.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Yes | 62c | 76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 55c | 63.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Yes | 56c | 60.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 43c | 50.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Yes | 59c | 43.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…0a0dbacked No | 46c | 42.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 72c | 25.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 55c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-02-13?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.