WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168145012a5e63593fc23a82cfe2fa35daebc68b79141eb6d628a40597f5f07c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd202…8973backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 9,378$4,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120.22 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 5,555$3,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055.25 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…7720backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 4,038$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.99 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb84…5fb5backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 3,031$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 2,932$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.15 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 2,907$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.25 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 2,370$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.74 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 584.4$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.89 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 199.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 181.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 176.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 100.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 56.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 47.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 40.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 60c | 16.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)this page
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.