WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4cf9c16876e6ebd554060d72b092aa761674394a47ce8d3dbb364a359cb342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 11,469$6,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,021.7 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 5,165$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.52 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 4,166$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.06 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 4,045$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.25 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 3,570$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.75 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 2,317$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.91 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 2,000$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.9 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 1,400$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x479b…cdb1backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,122$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.23 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Golden State Valkyries | 3c | 540.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 496.71$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.63 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 465$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.86 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 404.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 308.28$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 279.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.98 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 260$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 242$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 227$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 208.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Golden State Valkyries | 37c | 146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Golden State Valkyries | 39c | 130.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…e453backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 80.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 56.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…7720backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 53.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 33.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e138backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 32.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Las Vegas Aces | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)this page
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.