TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x021c…232fbacked Golden State Valkyries53c11,469$6,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,021.75945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Golden State Valkyries50c5,165$2,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,595.525354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Las Vegas Aces50c4,166$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,088.0632049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces48c4,045$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.251,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Las Vegas Aces48c3,570$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.7540550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces52c2,317$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.9123049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Las Vegas Aces49c2,000$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.913746%63 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Golden State Valkyries52c1,400$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.991770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+45.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x479b…cdb1backed Golden State Valkyries51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces47c1,122$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.2392248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5d…7501backed Golden State Valkyries3c540.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Las Vegas Aces49c496.71$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.6318844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces48c465$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8683748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Las Vegas Aces50c404.04$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.042347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked Las Vegas Aces50c308.28$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.141241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed Las Vegas Aces49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1534841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Las Vegas Aces51c279.88$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9819646.9%92 W · 104 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Golden State Valkyries51c260$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.65855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Las Vegas Aces49c242$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4224347.7%116 W · 127 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Golden State Valkyries50c227$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.51947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries49c208.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9478548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Las Vegas Aces50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10011941.2%49 W · 70 L-12.0wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Las Vegas Aces49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10211349.6%56 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Las Vegas Aces50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10011552.2%60 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Golden State Valkyries37c146$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.734918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Golden State Valkyries39c130.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3361042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Las Vegas Aces47c125$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2539947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Las Vegas Aces49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.043946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Las Vegas Aces51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497350.7%37 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa64b…e453backed Golden State Valkyries48c80.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.441513.3%2 W · 13 L-5.4wins-0.36per pick49cpaid-73.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x35c9…bc74backed Las Vegas Aces50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3012651.6%65 W · 61 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7497…18cebacked Las Vegas Aces53c56.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.847040%28 W · 42 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e05…7720backed Golden State Valkyries47c53.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.162133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Las Vegas Aces54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2318746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Las Vegas Aces52c33.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9815748.4%76 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb482…e138backed Golden State Valkyries53c32.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Las Vegas Aces69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8330649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Las Vegas Aces49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.37944.3%35 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Golden State Valkyries50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0826054.6%142 W · 118 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Golden State Valkyries51c29.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8842649.3%210 W · 216 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Las Vegas Aces72c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2810858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Las Vegas Aces52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1234753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Las Vegas Aces71c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3831448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.