CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168ef5b20b825a14c8dd1a448b1e9221b1d760db9d5ac0908a19c2f47ad62b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lavkedof ASTRAL, Lavked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ASTRAL | 45c | 811.21$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.18 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Lavked | 72c | 583.18$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lavked | 28c | 494.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.57 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lavked | 37c | 388.74$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.59 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…52a5backed Lavked | 77c | 334.95$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…9df8backed ASTRAL | 12c | 316.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Lavked | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed ASTRAL | 53c | 243.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lavked | 34c | 213.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed ASTRAL | 49c | 187.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked ASTRAL | 74c | 147.06$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fec…500dbacked ASTRAL | 51c | 141.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked ASTRAL | 62c | 139.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lavked | 35c | 120.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Lavked | 17c | 108.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Lavked | 17c | 103.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f49…4377backed Lavked | 29c | 96.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed Lavked | 37c | 88.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ff29backed Lavked | 39c | 87.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…f645backed Lavked | 27c | 86.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…84abbacked Lavked | 24c | 78.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed ASTRAL | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed ASTRAL | 31c | 46.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Lavked | 30c | 42.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Lavked | 53c | 42.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed ASTRAL | 80c | 42.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked ASTRAL | 80c | 42.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked ASTRAL | 80c | 42.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Lavked | 50c | 40.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…2b69backed ASTRAL | 78c | 36.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d8…a180backed Lavked | 44c | 34.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Lavked | 45c | 31.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked ASTRAL | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba2…f46bbacked Lavked | 41c | 29.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…4793backed Lavked | 54c | 28.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…d1abbacked ASTRAL | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Lavked - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group DLavked won
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Lavked - Map 2 WinnerLavked won
- Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5)Lavked won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.