Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b20737dc639d74ab30b1247bc70fc6d62c695ec8929142575eb7d04de3ad49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 0c | 7,428$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 999.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 705.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 8c | 541.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 9c | 518.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 429$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e4…2f95backed Yes | 4c | 411.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 385.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 368.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 338.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 5c | 331.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked Yes | 8c | 326.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 315$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 10c | 285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 21c | 257$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 6c | 243.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 214.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 213.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 187$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 10c | 149.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 11c | 145.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 145$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 8c | 143.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 11c | 123.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 10c | 116.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 10c | 115.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 13c | 110.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 16c | 106.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked Yes | 12c | 102.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 11c | 90.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.