Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95effa81eb74380433934668f97e70e8a39cd4623f8bdbe7cf805b9596943e13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 50c | 1,194$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed No | 1c | 947.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 42c | 947.53$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.76 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 41c | 936.46$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.83 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 864.76$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 60c | 844.04$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.93 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 72c | 796.29$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.94 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 696.76$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 29c | 617.56$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.99 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 43c | 602.75$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 67c | 573.79$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.98 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed Yes | 44c | 570.78$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 519.08$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 65c | 500.98$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.54 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 62c | 486.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.08 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed Yes | 74c | 461.79$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 454.74$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 64c | 445.94$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 429.2$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 429$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 23c | 351.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed No | 56c | 345.22$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 323.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.61 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 313.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.05 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 67c | 291.92$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 33c | 284.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 40c | 271.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 26c | 267.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 46c | 263.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…e7a5backed Yes | 68c | 256.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 249.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 55c | 249.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 40c | 245.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 30c | 235.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.84 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…c78abacked No | 67c | 221.39$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 42c | 215.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 54c | 196.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 60c | 187$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 186.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked Yes | 66c | 185.1$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 69c | 183.06$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked No | 52c | 177.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed Yes | 75c | 167.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 70c | 165.92$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed No | 72c | 162.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 41c | 157.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 31c | 150.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 51c | 145.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 45c | 142.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 75c | 140.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 72c | 139.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 55c | 139.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 129.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 58c | 127.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked Yes | 79c | 125.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 22c | 122.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 48c | 122.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 34c | 115.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe91a…a33ebacked No | 70c | 113.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 111.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 45c | 103$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 41c | 102.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 61c | 100.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf172…7c7ebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 51c | 97.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 97.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 92.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 55c | 92.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 18c | 86.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 71c | 81.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Yes | 46c | 81.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed No | 71c | 75.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 44c | 73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 35c | 71.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 35c | 69.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…0d5cbacked Yes | 45c | 66.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 67c | 66.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…8367backed Yes | 67c | 66.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 67c | 65.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 35c | 60.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 69c | 59.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked Yes | 39c | 55.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 61c | 54.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.