Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43211b02a18e39379f2d9414e75ecb5692592ced7c133c97e470dcb0d1f2633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 48c | 2,500$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.98 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 50c | 1,525$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.93 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,231$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 1c | 1,219$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 48c | 832.55$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.52 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 69c | 814.51$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.74 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 708.48$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.93 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 675$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 600$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 552.74$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 44c | 549.68$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.72 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 18c | 530.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 467.68$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 19c | 436.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 429$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 343.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 20c | 320.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 47c | 306.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 299.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 293.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 22c | 290.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 76c | 253.9$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes | 24c | 211.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 54c | 208.12$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 200.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 197.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 20c | 196.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 196.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 190.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 187$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…ccd6backed Yes | 61c | 185.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 183.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 160.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 17c | 157$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 13c | 149.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 25c | 145.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 69c | 143.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 43c | 139.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 21c | 139.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…9b2bbacked Yes | 56c | 124.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 9c | 118.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 52c | 115.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 15c | 114.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 110.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 47c | 103$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 67c | 102.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…2805backed Yes | 57c | 102.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…22f3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…5005backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 57c | 94.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 92.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 24c | 92.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 28c | 90.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 87.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…e1bbbacked No | 48c | 86.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 29c | 85.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 80.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Yes | 38c | 79.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 58c | 78.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 78.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 39c | 76.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 71.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 49c | 69.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 68.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes | 23c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 46c | 65.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…65eabacked Yes | 62c | 64.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 59c | 64.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 30c | 62.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 49c | 62.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 61.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 26c | 59.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…a057backed Yes | 56c | 58.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 57.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 43c | 56.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 57c | 55.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 30c | 54.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…b393backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 78c | 49.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 32c | 49.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…970ebacked Yes | 25c | 44.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…6530backed Yes | 57c | 44.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 40c | 37.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…0d5cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.