Euroleague · resolved market
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c9e3147a0030a928e42343d999e44016163984e6b61b95d9fef421e099af46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,341$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 70c | 1,028$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 350.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 159 | 8.2%13 W · 146 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…e023backed Yes | 30c | 67.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 70c | 63.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…78b2backed No | 72c | 31.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed No | 71c | 26.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?this page
- Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Dennis Schroder win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?Yes won
- Will Dzanan Musa win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Franz Wagner win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Lauri Markkanen win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.