Euroleague · resolved market
Will Franz Wagner win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdffbec83ac373840c1b22924a4294a68986ab4e9060e99d33ee6581594ccc28c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 32c | 368.66$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 11c | 258.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 35c | 233.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 67c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 32c | 173.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 39c | 143.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 47c | 127.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…867ebacked Yes | 46c | 107.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…b2e9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…342bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 53c | 92.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 50c | 72.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…08c7backed Yes | 44c | 69.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…c990backed Yes | 44c | 68.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…b96dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 22c | 57.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…8cafbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Franz Wagner win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?this page
- Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Dennis Schroder win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?Yes won
- Will Dzanan Musa win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Lauri Markkanen win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.