Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16f3207bcea47372dee83b54f3a6ca8db43536b8110e6df03a6aa446a146ddaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 0c | 11,052$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Over | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.32 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…6bedbacked Under | 70c | 2,143$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 510.38$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.3 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Under | 70c | 476.13$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed Over | 47c | 214.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Under | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…5adcbacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Under | 53c | 70.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Under | 67c | 52.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…74ebbacked Over | 61c | 36.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…102ebacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…74c9backed Over | 47c | 22.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerOG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.