WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 172.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x170c83e27ab50b958cfaa6975039838ea05c40117d59e1820db1b39361810d5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35e7…24e8backed Over | 55c | 1,154$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 552.58$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.55 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Over | 52c | 444.36$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.02 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Over | 53c | 378.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 49c | 109.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 53c | 94.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 67.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 76c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Under | 80c | 19.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 172.5this page
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle StormPortlandFire won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 165.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 166.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 171.5Under won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-1.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-3.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-4.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.