WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Storm (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c5c5869a77748845557ea711f3fe2369262b3668e341dd4f753a45429b5c26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Seattle Storm, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 7,616$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,837.05 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PortlandFire | 49c | 6,973$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,556.34 | 515 | 52.6%271 W · 244 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 5,423$2,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,763.62 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed PortlandFire | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.48 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed PortlandFire | 49c | 1,591$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.35 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…3ba1backed PortlandFire | 54c | 927.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.37 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked PortlandFire | 50c | 909.85$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.13 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 646.24$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.04 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 577.24$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.85 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.2wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed PortlandFire | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed PortlandFire | 52c | 382.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed PortlandFire | 49c | 365$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.15 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed PortlandFire | 49c | 232.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.51 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed PortlandFire | 49c | 164$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 144.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed PortlandFire | 49c | 111.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 106.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed PortlandFire | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked PortlandFire | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed PortlandFire | 49c | 69.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 51.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 390 | 45.9%179 W · 211 L | -15.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed PortlandFire | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Seattle Storm | 46c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Seattle Storm | 54c | 31.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…7945backed PortlandFire | 49c | 29.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x337a…b913backed PortlandFire | 50c | 29.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…cd29backed PortlandFire | 55c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-4.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle StormPortlandFire won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 165.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 166.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 171.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 172.5Under won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-1.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-3.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.