TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PortlandFireof PortlandFire, Seattle Storm
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,314 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc308…7b09backed Seattle Storm1c17,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9044915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Seattle Storm11c11,287$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.3134726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Seattle Storm53c10,931$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783.061030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Seattle Storm26c10,354$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.210340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire48c8,669$4,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,478.631,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Storm20c7,028$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.0731043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Seattle Storm63c6,349$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00023049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55fd…b51abacked PortlandFire49c6,139$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,139.291442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire68c5,179$3,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.0599548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Seattle Storm47c5,050$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.6512165.3%79 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire38c4,852$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.4727449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Storm62c3,957$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.3840550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Seattle Storm0c2,917$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed PortlandFire67c2,812$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.6617656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed PortlandFire38c2,753$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.637236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire50c2,751$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.621,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire37c2,661$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.2883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf731…e5c2backed PortlandFire38c2,632$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.582646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed PortlandFire45c2,408$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.95156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed PortlandFire51c2,288$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.12626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed PortlandFire36c2,275$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.3212234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Seattle Storm29c2,202$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.4712144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire76c2,089$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.250646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…15ffbacked Seattle Storm62c1,936$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Seattle Storm31c1,876$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.810634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e1b…2576backed PortlandFire67c1,472$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b1…83a0backed PortlandFire37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed PortlandFire73c1,344$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.852065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Seattle Storm22c1,343$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.818746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked PortlandFire74c1,330$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.82070%14 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Seattle Storm32c1,322$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.511127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed PortlandFire79c1,289$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.985466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Seattle Storm48c1,255$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.5814942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked PortlandFire80c1,253$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.13073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Seattle Storm48c1,250$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.991421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Seattle Storm62c1,219$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.024967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Seattle Storm62c1,156$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.7614346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Seattle Storm49c1,085$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.7936750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire37c1,024$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.1292248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Seattle Storm62c1,000$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Seattle Storm3c938$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9210838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed Seattle Storm54c899.33$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.643548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Seattle Storm30c858.05$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.9116633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked PortlandFire40c839.96$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.986746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27d2…b0f8backed Seattle Storm63c793.65$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed PortlandFire38c745.24$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.0523245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c4…989abacked Seattle Storm51c706.15$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.772060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked PortlandFire42c654.37$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.534235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Storm62c647.5$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.4574942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked Seattle Storm48c625.44$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Seattle Storm63c622.43$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.135766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed PortlandFire38c600$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37212840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Seattle Storm24c570.38$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.92634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Storm6c560.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8826147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88f9…5c03backed PortlandFire46c520.48$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.372958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Seattle Storm54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.99944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked PortlandFire41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.83545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed PortlandFire55c486.76$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.5230347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb70…52c0backed Seattle Storm60c405.91$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Seattle Storm24c400.52$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.277520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a1…504cbacked PortlandFire42c388.67$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked PortlandFire45c379.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.9423955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Seattle Storm53c374.06$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.997944.3%35 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked PortlandFire32c369.57$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.578061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd759…6d1abacked Seattle Storm55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Seattle Storm29c350.25$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9610538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed PortlandFire38c349$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.384438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Seattle Storm53c339.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Seattle Storm60c333.07$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.394365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed PortlandFire73c332.91$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.411841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Seattle Storm62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked PortlandFire71c299.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed PortlandFire74c298.33$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7955255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Storm46c286.09$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.689349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8a…9c2fbacked Seattle Storm49c277.47$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.962429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed PortlandFire74c252.21$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.613342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked PortlandFire65c251.74$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.865642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Seattle Storm63c250$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.58657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Seattle Storm22c239.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6384…3d67backed PortlandFire69c231.98$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.942850%14 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Seattle Storm50c227.5$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5161042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Seattle Storm61c219.4$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8314148.9%69 W · 72 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Seattle Storm5c212.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6323234.5%80 W · 152 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4027…30b9backed Seattle Storm63c207.3$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.62339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed PortlandFire49c205$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.952661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed PortlandFire49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0810453.8%56 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab30…88dbbacked Seattle Storm49c202.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Seattle Storm31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Seattle Storm51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed PortlandFire74c182.76$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.764269%29 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf4…f4c3backed Seattle Storm63c174.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Seattle Storm30c173.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4419031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Seattle Storm58c171.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.072138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Seattle Storm63c168.73$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.338645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Seattle Storm60c161.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7914947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Storm7c152$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3614936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dff…7fecbacked PortlandFire78c149.2$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Seattle Storm15c147.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.148640.7%35 W · 51 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Seattle Storm36c139.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502825%7 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked PortlandFire51c131$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.927368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.