Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1713167dab60d19393a1dec3a4d08bb0ba466b73cfe7f4278fe5e26b6510b2b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 940.62$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.67 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 58c | 338.85$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 219.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 146.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 45c | 133.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 123.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 19c | 121.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 112.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 108.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 43c | 105.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 95.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 95.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 93.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 88.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 78c | 81.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 77.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 45c | 67.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 66.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 47c | 56.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 47c | 54.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 54.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 50.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 46c | 48.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 41.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 52c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 42c | 37.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 49c | 35.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 56c | 35.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 35.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 31.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 26.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 45c | 26.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 47c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 51c | 22.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.