Tennis · resolved market
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17250202dcfe6c91900281c2956605432af58024488ba5b199f7b7efb0f228bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ugo Humbertof Ugo Humbert, Adrian Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d2…fe85backed Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 13,031$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.8 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Adrian Mannarino | 5c | 8,944$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.42 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Adrian Mannarino | 3c | 4,998$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 4,559$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.22 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Adrian Mannarino | 7c | 2,784$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…5166backed Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 2,654$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.05 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Adrian Mannarino | 3c | 2,605$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Adrian Mannarino | 9c | 1,550$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Adrian Mannarino | 11c | 1,205$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Adrian Mannarino | 4c | 1,154$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b45…4145backed Adrian Mannarino | 5c | 999.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Adrian Mannarino | 8c | 916.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Adrian Mannarino | 5c | 735.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Adrian Mannarino | 9c | 668.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Adrian Mannarino | 2c | 663.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 552.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Adrian Mannarino | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Adrian Mannarino | 5c | 475.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Adrian Mannarino | 12c | 315.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Adrian Mannarino | 4c | 280.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 312 | 20.5%64 W · 248 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a311backed Adrian Mannarino | 7c | 210.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Adrian Mannarino | 5c | 207.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 151.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Adrian Mannarino | 7c | 148.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 107.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Adrian Mannarino | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 66.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarinothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs MannarinoHumbert won
- Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Humbert won
- Set Handicap: Humbert (-2.5) vs Mannarino (+2.5)Humbert won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.