Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x172e90ae369a6ffda982d1785059e2c6346b51f9129c1139744c72394a84e112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 2,604$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 53c | 325.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 72c | 318.77$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 250.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 43c | 246.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 213.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.91 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…68b5backed No | 65c | 200.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 168.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 150.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 126.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 119.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 115.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…7e81backed No | 78c | 110.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 25c | 105.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 105.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 103.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 95.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 76c | 88.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 19c | 83.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 81.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 81.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked No | 75c | 79.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 77.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 74.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 72.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 72.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 25c | 67.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 28c | 65.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 31c | 65.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 63.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 63.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 58.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 43c | 46.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 45.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 45.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 44c | 44.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 69c | 44.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 44.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Yes | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 47c | 38.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 33.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…832cbacked No | 60c | 33.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 60c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 78c | 30.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 30.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 64c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 70c | 21.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5d…62acbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 78c | 20.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…c708backed No | 66c | 20.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…7c3fbacked Yes | 56c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 72c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…8ef6backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…76cfbacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 70c | 14.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.