Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bac09a0993bbe8f8078d4ae2f0c6796f75473866e511728ee76ce0f1f40a676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 4c | 3,344$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 346.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 253.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 58c | 241.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 235.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 212.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 25c | 210.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 53c | 187.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 181.34$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 57c | 178.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed No | 63c | 160.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 25c | 157.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…7d1abacked Yes | 51c | 152.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 38c | 142.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 139$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 27c | 137.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 75c | 133.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 42c | 130$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 126.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 43c | 124.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 71c | 114.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 113.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 110.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 41c | 109.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 98.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 89.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 86.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 75c | 81.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 71.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked No | 53c | 68.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 67.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed Yes | 27c | 67.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 65c | 61.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 61.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 59.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 70c | 59.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 57.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 67c | 55.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 54.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 51.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…325fbacked No | 53c | 49.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf613…2a52backed Yes | 24c | 47.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…8acbbacked No | 59c | 46.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 36c | 44.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 74c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 39.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 74c | 38.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 37.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 37.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 35.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…5da9backed No | 75c | 33.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…832cbacked No | 68c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 70c | 27.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 55c | 27.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c3…ee58backed No | 79c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 23.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 73c | 22.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 20.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…c759backed No | 74c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…c604backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…1398backed No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.