Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Sonay Kartal vs Linda Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17511f8cbabcb04b4f8e3ab005c2a61f5855f032d25a7a5172b5d6504ec75deb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Kartal, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98b1…d855backed Kartal | 27c | 8,747$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Noskova | 72c | 7,577$5,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.86 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Noskova | 72c | 1,597$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.53 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Noskova | 71c | 1,270$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.38 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kartal | 36c | 1,127$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.87 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Kartal | 36c | 1,050$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Noskova | 61c | 810.26$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Kartal | 38c | 649.42$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Kartal | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…edbfbacked Noskova | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kartal | 36c | 474.36$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Noskova | 62c | 444.29$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Noskova | 73c | 319.79$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Kartal | 37c | 249.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Noskova | 72c | 218.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Kartal | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Noskova | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Noskova | 74c | 151$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Noskova | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…e49cbacked Noskova | 63c | 102.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Kartal | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…3430backed Noskova | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Kartal | 29c | 76.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kartal | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Noskova | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Noskova | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Noskova | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kartal | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Noskova | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Kartal | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Noskova | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…78aebacked Noskova | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.