Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-04-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x176cd4eedc1f8dd3ad740c3302c86a5978aaae75b20c6583a7c646df1df711c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 9c | 2,304$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.11 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 74c | 1,969$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.63 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 1,510$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 951.75$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.38 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 76c | 729.57$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.59 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…af42backed No | 76c | 690.21$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 395.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 16c | 352.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 11c | 329.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed No | 79c | 326.21$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 13c | 205$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 25c | 191$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Yes | 27c | 182.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 29c | 143.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed Yes | 10c | 141.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 80c | 137$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…2821backed Yes | 22c | 99.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 87.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 22c | 62.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 30c | 57.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 46.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 74c | 45.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 23c | 42.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-04-12?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.