Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1661d1114711489a1f354340a746c02ddce80b979fe66dfdcb2c0d3aae99cbbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 4,775$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.48 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 3,590$2,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.61 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Yes | 46c | 919.02$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 640.69$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.09 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 41c | 495.18$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 421.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed No | 50c | 380.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 51c | 357$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 271.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 51c | 268.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.82 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 242.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 214.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 190.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 66c | 184.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 159.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 147.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 123.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 81.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked No | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 60c | 75.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 70.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 63.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Yes | 45c | 52.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 78c | 43.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 75c | 39.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked No | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 75c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 78c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-04-12?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.