Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1779045a5fac831c8d09697b8e02ecd93f1a31a91cb654706ea522627d33c0d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,415 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 60c | 4,234$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.95 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 73c | 3,580$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 21c | 3,063$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.36 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 41c | 2,652$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.72 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed No | 13c | 2,500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.79 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 36c | 1,640$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.39 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 73c | 1,612$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.37 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 36c | 1,413$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.44 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 73c | 1,334$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.44 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 41c | 1,154$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.96 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,021$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.97 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 18c | 640.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.93 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 35c | 635.85$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.61 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 33c | 512.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.75 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 41c | 487.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 23c | 469.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.09 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked No | 29c | 407.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.99 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed No | 27c | 333$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dd…d3dfbacked No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked No | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 60c | 241.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes | 41c | 241.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 29c | 219.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 37c | 202.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 59c | 179.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 59c | 154$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…9372backed Yes | 38c | 138.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…237dbacked Yes | 75c | 133.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 34c | 133.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 129.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 39c | 91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 73c | 89.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 65c | 89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 19c | 81.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed No | 36c | 78.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Yes | 75c | 77.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 23c | 75.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 31c | 68.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed No | 64c | 65.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Yes | 40c | 57.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 22c | 54.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 47c | 53.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…c0eabacked Yes | 70c | 52.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 33c | 46.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 52c | 40.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 59c | 37.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 36.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 68c | 31.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 66c | 27.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 58c | 23.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…14b7backed Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 78c | 14.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.