Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3b25604540fe43f5f8a465fb0a6c94c1f18b51943fd59780248c299c2eea56c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 43c | 3,463$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.23 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,750$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.24 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff61…e560backed Yes | 79c | 1,742$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 60c | 1,693$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.76 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 10c | 1,657$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.98 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 1,529$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.73 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,248$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.55 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 827.45$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.66 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 663.2$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.29 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 642.23$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 18c | 279.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Yes | 74c | 272.25$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 15c | 239.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 226.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 150.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 30c | 148.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 142.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ef10backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 73c | 125.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked No | 29c | 122.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 28c | 105.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 102.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 11c | 98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 88.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 74c | 82.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Yes | 31c | 70.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 70.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 19c | 67.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 26c | 64.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 28c | 61.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 60.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 75c | 54.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 25c | 40.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 40.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 39c | 34.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 72c | 31.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 46c | 26.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 73c | 23.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 78c | 22.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-08?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.