Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbf5451ae8c93433c6da4bd3d02a7c993e9387d4540061eedbb4829ed7a3062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,830 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 13c | 3,726$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 34c | 2,898$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.34 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Yes | 9c | 2,793$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 30c | 2,687$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.01 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 66c | 2,625$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.56 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 8c | 1,600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,307$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.88 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 67c | 1,250$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.4 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,249$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 1,213$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 774.74$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 12c | 727.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.18 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 33c | 650$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 10c | 621.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 2c | 493.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 17c | 444.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed No | 15c | 439.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…9cd6backed No | 14c | 349.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…3224backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 34c | 299.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 7c | 286.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…48e3backed No | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 66c | 109$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…d7d7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…237dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 97.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 30c | 94.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 66.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b5bbbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 36c | 44.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…c349backed Yes | 35c | 39.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 38.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…fe90backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…945cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 67c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 65c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01e…dc47backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 71c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.