Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Dzumhur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17ae28438b542ec5960e64d481eaa6d023bd44c1a2ffe49d4c076499b006d55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dzumhurof Fokina, Dzumhur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Dzumhur | 59c | 967.08$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.07 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Fokina | 39c | 776.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Dzumhur | 61c | 362.27$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Dzumhur | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Fokina | 30c | 257$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Fokina | 41c | 197.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fokina | 38c | 167.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Fokina | 75c | 158.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Dzumhur | 49c | 137.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…bfa7backed Fokina | 75c | 133.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 282 | 65.6%185 W · 97 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Dzumhur | 25c | 108.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Fokina | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Fokina | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Dzumhur | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Dzumhur | 48c | 34.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Fokina | 56c | 28.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…77dabacked Fokina | 75c | 18.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Dzumhurthis page
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Damir Dzumhur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Fokina vs. Dzumhur: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir DzumhurAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Dzumhur (+1.5)Dzumhur won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-2.5) vs Dzumhur (+2.5)Dzumhur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.