NHL · resolved market
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17dcc3e6659a4da9ebfbdd8469d49669abb8b7a9fdc83eac740a294b220332d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsof Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Springfield Thunderbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 34c | 336.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 242.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 66c | 221.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 32c | 192.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 63c | 114.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 67c | 102.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 12c | 102$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 65c | 85.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 67c | 80.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 76c | 62.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fd…4b88backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…d312backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 34c | 59.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 38cpaid | +81%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 64c | 46.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 66c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.