MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x181039ec5be33ed8d3e9eeaff85634cc1df6f97fbc3a1b52aba94e138a93a024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…97a1backed Yes | 0c | 10,312$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Yes | 52c | 1,885$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 50c | 1,687$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.6 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,434$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.81 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 49c | 1,113$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.06 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 48c | 333$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed No | 50c | 238.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 50c | 231.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed Yes | 51c | 193.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Yes | 53c | 98.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 49c | 75.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 51c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…ec46backed Yes | 51c | 30.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…9df5backed No | 50c | 29.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.