Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Taylor Townsend vs Storm Hunter
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1823547f32c4fa0e588f761732a2b618b8f0d62cf11107aff8d77467f7e92d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hunterof Townsend, Hunter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Townsend | 50c | 1,150$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Townsend | 13c | 1,111$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Hunter | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hunter | 63c | 759$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Hunter | 39c | 676$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.31 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Townsend | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Hunter | 28c | 192.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Townsend | 37c | 189$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hunter | 45c | 177.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Townsend | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Townsend | 70c | 141$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Townsend | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hunter | 32c | 125.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hunter | 46c | 106.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Hunter | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Townsend | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Townsend | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Townsend | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Hunter | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Townsend | 66c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Hunter | 36c | 39.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Townsend | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Hunter | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…0becbacked Townsend | 72c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Townsend | 77c | 16.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 242 | 74%179 W · 63 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…efbbbacked Hunter | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 79cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.