MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1840a0ed0728bd9e0d943c31369b896193bd670f948afb952c89baa1d5739821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 270.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 154$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1,286 | 49.4%635 W · 651 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 123.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 1,738 | 50.4%876 W · 862 L | +57.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 114.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 112.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Texas Rangers | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Texas Rangers | 33c | 83.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 76.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Texas Rangers | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 66.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 62.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 46.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 41.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 158 | 40.5%64 W · 94 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 36.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…f499backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…498ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…cb6bbacked Texas Rangers | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.