Euroleague · resolved market
Valencia vs. Real Madrid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18765e109a8ace7c652b73ff62af314d94729aeda4d68207708ba0cd1a726381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madridof Valencia, Real Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49c8…3c52backed Real Madrid | 42c | 1,182$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.56 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Valencia | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Valencia | 25c | 462.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Valencia | 58c | 325.49$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Valencia | 29c | 324.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 132 | 20.5%27 W · 105 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Real Madrid | 64c | 312.56$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Valencia | 47c | 296.27$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Valencia | 55c | 213.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Real Madrid | 44c | 210.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 269 | 35.3%95 W · 174 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Real Madrid | 57c | 189.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…5ce0backed Valencia | 56c | 178.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Real Madrid | 61c | 161.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Valencia | 59c | 132.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Valencia | 28c | 121.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Valencia | 58c | 106.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Real Madrid | 46c | 104.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Real Madrid | 44c | 101.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 214 | 44.4%95 W · 119 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Real Madrid | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Real Madrid | 64c | 97.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Real Madrid | 45c | 95.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 215 | 35.8%77 W · 138 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Valencia | 58c | 80.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Valencia | 56c | 78.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165b…711cbacked Valencia | 56c | 69.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Real Madrid | 62c | 58.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…316cbacked Valencia | 52c | 51.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Valencia | 28c | 51.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Valencia | 54c | 49.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Real Madrid | 48c | 47.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Real Madrid | 72c | 45.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…133dbacked Real Madrid | 44c | 35.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Valencia | 52c | 31.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Real Madrid | 70c | 27.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…d416backed Real Madrid | 49c | 26.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…f6cbbacked Valencia | 50c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3dc…1318backed Real Madrid | 50c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…cd53backed Valencia | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Real Madrid | 77c | 21.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…43c3backed Real Madrid | 50c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…8ed7backed Real Madrid | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Valencia | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.