Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1894231d8898d2a24adc2b6a753ce46de76362f0bf0573da897a3f577271c9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Nakashima | 34c | 1,062$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Medvedev | 58c | 1,048$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Nakashima | 40c | 1,048$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…892cbacked Nakashima | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 71c | 679.15$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 47c | 479.13$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.94 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Medvedev | 72c | 321.23$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 47c | 258.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Medvedev | 52c | 180.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Medvedev | 79c | 143.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Medvedev | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4039…3ef3backed Medvedev | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Medvedev | 52c | 57.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Nakashima | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Medvedev | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…9d77backed Medvedev | 61c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Brisbane International: Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon NakashimaMedvedev won
- Medvedev vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Nakashima: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs NakashimaMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.