Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wuning: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18aeba7d0a8fdbc8b9e5faad5f48e88d08101c32399d68c79f79d17c4978a55a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chase Fergusonof Chase Ferguson, Taiyo Yamanaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Chase Ferguson | 63c | 1,140$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.03 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 21c | 608$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 69c | 484.91$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.46 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…3d3ebacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 76c | 432.32$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 16c | 414.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Chase Ferguson | 20c | 205$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Chase Ferguson | 21c | 197.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.43 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Chase Ferguson | 20c | 165$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 61c | 160.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 197 | 40.6%80 W · 117 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 80c | 150.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Chase Ferguson | 36c | 117.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…a989backed Chase Ferguson | 22c | 89.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chase Ferguson | 66c | 79.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 61c | 42.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 28.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Chase Ferguson | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Chase Ferguson | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…c696backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 180 | 72.8%131 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.