Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d1ebf3d84b3a4f6a0dc799060a077126d2acc1a0f72ef7bef7c12966f4706e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 27c | 451.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 353.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 291.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 177.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 176.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 28c | 158.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 15c | 132.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 94.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 92.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 88.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 23c | 79.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 13c | 75.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 27c | 63.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 62.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 29c | 52.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ab…3c0dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 49.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 45.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 44.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 29c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 28.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 12.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.