CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18de6488becd8e12e16dadb9815c13432bb1ac07191627cef9d5c6dfebd8f901

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Eternal Fireof Eternal Fire, MANA eSports
Resolved: Feb 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,435 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4b59…3aa6backed Eternal Fire	63c	3,457$2,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,279.24	849	58.3%495 W · 354 L	+60.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MANA eSports	37c	2,000$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.5	1,411	33.7%475 W · 936 L	+42.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Eternal Fire	66c	938.99$622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.76	4,038	48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfded…312cbacked Eternal Fire	66c	875$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$296.02	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+43%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Eternal Fire	62c	806.01$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.44	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Eternal Fire	64c	782.34$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.64	921	52.6%484 W · 437 L	+16.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked MANA eSports	36c	756.09$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.19	275	30.9%85 W · 190 L	-18.6wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked MANA eSports	36c	713.99$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.84	162	35.8%58 W · 104 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked MANA eSports	37c	624.98$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.74	1,573	35.3%556 W · 1,017 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed MANA eSports	37c	618.3$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.77	196	43.4%85 W · 111 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed MANA eSports	35c	501$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.22	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed MANA eSports	35c	484.8$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.68	167	50.9%85 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked MANA eSports	37c	472$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.64	139	47.5%66 W · 73 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed MANA eSports	34c	452.52$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.06	1,969	46.7%919 W · 1,050 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc531…47e5backed Eternal Fire	65c	449.23$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.23	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Eternal Fire	64c	427.88$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.88	1,623	44.9%728 W · 895 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5e…58efbacked MANA eSports	37c	395$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.15	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x320c…2d7abacked Eternal Fire	65c	365.45$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.19	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed MANA eSports	35c	299.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	765	46.7%357 W · 408 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Eternal Fire	65c	276$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.37	107	35.5%38 W · 69 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed MANA eSports	36c	257$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.52	108	41.7%45 W · 63 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked MANA eSports	36c	250$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	543	48.6%264 W · 279 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6df…1cf4backed MANA eSports	34c	238.24$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed MANA eSports	38c	212.05$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.56	1,676	51.1%857 W · 819 L	+21.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Eternal Fire	58c	202$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.16	303	35.6%108 W · 195 L	-13.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked MANA eSports	37c	200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	482	42.1%203 W · 279 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked MANA eSports	34c	200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	362	45.3%164 W · 198 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed MANA eSports	34c	192$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.28	248	40.7%101 W · 147 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MANA eSports	35c	175.43$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.7	1,714	46.7%801 W · 913 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed MANA eSports	35c	171.49$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.25	872	44.8%391 W · 481 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Eternal Fire	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	676	51.8%350 W · 326 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed MANA eSports	36c	150$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	540	32.4%175 W · 365 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6e…7a5dbacked MANA eSports	33c	150$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed MANA eSports	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed MANA eSports	32c	136$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.52	87	33.3%29 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked Eternal Fire	73c	110$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.12	150	63.3%95 W · 55 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked MANA eSports	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	436	40.6%177 W · 259 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed MANA eSports	35c	99.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	248	50.4%125 W · 123 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked MANA eSports	34c	99.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	700	38.9%272 W · 428 L	-29.5wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Eternal Fire	66c	98.05$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.34	7,925	50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L	+179.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae9d…d417backed Eternal Fire	65c	94$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed MANA eSports	35c	90$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MANA eSports	27c	84$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	2,776	37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L	-140.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed MANA eSports	36c	82.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	37.3%22 W · 37 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked MANA eSports	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	459	56.9%261 W · 198 L	+20.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Eternal Fire	68c	77.8$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.95	1,547	33.9%524 W · 1,023 L	-73.4wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked MANA eSports	37c	70$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	956	42.6%407 W · 549 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed MANA eSports	33c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	1,146	43.5%499 W · 647 L	-17.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked MANA eSports	30c	59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	196	42.9%84 W · 112 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked MANA eSports	31c	57.49$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	118	30.5%36 W · 82 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed MANA eSports	38c	52.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.87	148	39.9%59 W · 89 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Eternal Fire	66c	45.76$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.76	336	57.1%192 W · 144 L	-12.6wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed MANA eSports	30c	39.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	2,774	24.5%681 W · 2,093 L	-295.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1a34…e379backed Eternal Fire	64c	39.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.06	55	63.6%35 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fde…1c3cbacked Eternal Fire	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	56	51.8%29 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed MANA eSports	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	75	36%27 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffsthis page
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports - Map 1 WinnerEternal Fire won
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event