Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1903a2b5adac8206f72c028a7c14ab3f6294af0bba3daa6208e0fca048ef7687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 62c | 207.28$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 50c | 189$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 50c | 167.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 156.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 133.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…0d9dbacked Yes | 50c | 113.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 43c | 109.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 91.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 90.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 50c | 90.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 85.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 69c | 72.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 69.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 43c | 56.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 46c | 52.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 32c | 42.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 41c | 41.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 39.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 43c | 38.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 36.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 67c | 33.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 32.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 52c | 31.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 51c | 25.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 49c | 21.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked No | 61c | 17.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.