Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c396dbad26b1c2670cf696410cc0e8d9d1eb631041cf8070a4cd9e601685e9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 283.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 277.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 215.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 198.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 163.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 146.55$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…0d9dbacked Yes | 33c | 122.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 39c | 112.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 33c | 73.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 69c | 73.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 72.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 67.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 53c | 64.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 63.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 69c | 52.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 49.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 58c | 44.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 43.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 39.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 37.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 33c | 32.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 45c | 29.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 61c | 29.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 62c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 66c | 19.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.