Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x190490d2526516d8a155fdbd10f74dc50781975c396539e89401cf6a1f1d33e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 245.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 9c | 231.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 226$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 185.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 79c | 126.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 112.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 98.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 61c | 97.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 35c | 86.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 80.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 80.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 65.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 64.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 60.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 63c | 60.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 67c | 59.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…39c0backed Yes | 60c | 58.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 56.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 34c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 27c | 44.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 27c | 41.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 33c | 40.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 39.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 27c | 37.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 32c | 34.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 45c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 33.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 68c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 46c | 27.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 54c | 19.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 63c | 16.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.