Other European Leagues · resolved market
NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x192f13fa0603ca30b37d48315a1cea19c10a733d55d77f23af10ac8ceaaa42b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,477$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.46 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 52c | 811.86$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.17 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 17c | 558.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 409.56$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 393.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 67c | 373$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 52c | 192.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 19c | 190.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Over | 31c | 189.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Over | 49c | 109.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc8…6875backed Under | 49c | 99.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 78c | 82.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 58.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 34c | 56.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 109 | 20.2%22 W · 87 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Under | 56c | 47.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 66c | 44.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 48c | 44.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 53c | 41.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 34.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 34c | 33.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Under | 53c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 66c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 65c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Under won
- NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)NAC Breda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.