MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1939cfa4ff7200ea5f8bc38cbe3b9364890f7444e798a1f420ab74b261f5de1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 60c | 7,028$4,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,217 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 6,998$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,186.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…25c4backed Under | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +408%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…b74bbacked Under | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +369.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…2087backed Under | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…d10fbacked Under | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e5…a5c8backed Under | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 10c | 1,039$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…1939backed Under | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…896cbacked Under | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 324$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 36c | 266$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 36c | 161.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 49c | 132.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 119$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 35c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 49.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 66c | 37.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 40c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 60c | 18.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 64c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.