MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd42284ad4cedb66d6f651853d987ad720c22700b18a1d32d7baf2086e4b3a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 4c | 1,050$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 928.12$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 37c | 617.12$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 37c | 471.18$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.84 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 431.71$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 38c | 424.95$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.34 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 34c | 415.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Yankees | 37c | 367.43$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 346.77$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked New York Yankees | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 36c | 259$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Yankees | 31c | 149$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 123.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 121.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 119.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 38c | 109.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 35c | 94.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 41c | 92.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 84.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees | 33c | 82.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Yankees | 41c | 75.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…0c74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 73.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 37c | 70.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Yankees | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 47.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 37.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 35.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed New York Yankees | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21bb…c5dbbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 28.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 25.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Yankees | 71c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed New York Yankees | 73c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.