MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6226ae42d47a9f0f906b611decc76d56e118a1fa769aefa46df156bb610a31c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 3,356$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.88 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 2,101$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 1,560$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.02 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 1,288$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 79c | 1,262$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 46c | 1,188$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.48 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 21c | 999.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.19 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 940.38$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.98 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Over | 37c | 729.73$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 728.17$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Over | 13c | 727.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 687.54$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 30c | 680.26$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 55c | 555.37$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.92 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 24c | 504$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 482.11$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 54c | 463.74$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.74 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 383.27$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 326$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 297.06$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 48c | 255.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 249.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 18c | 249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 77c | 221.87$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 53c | 190.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 179.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 175$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 174.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 159.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…dd88backed Over | 47c | 144.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 130.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Under | 54c | 102.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 101.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 87.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 46c | 85.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 76c | 66.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…9b53backed Over | 47c | 66.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 27c | 58.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Under | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 32c | 53.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 53c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 49.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 70c | 49.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f5…97b2backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Over | 47c | 37.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c0…01e0backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…7438backed Over | 47c | 27.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.