South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19433a6f3802df1d6d686968ed67cc4031a52f7a01f67b9734c3cadcd789f921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 55c | 25,000$13,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,250 | 322 | 42.5%137 W · 185 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 45c | 24,899$11,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,204.35 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 66c | 2,109$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 42c | 2,022$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.48 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 19c | 1,718$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.46 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 62c | 1,335$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.9 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 42c | 1,262$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216a…9380backed Yes | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 45c | 825.16$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.32 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 45c | 799.98$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 38c | 750.98$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.57 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 59c | 406.58$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.38 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 58c | 311$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Yes | 69c | 163.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 35c | 112.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 1,442 | 51.9%748 W · 694 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 61c | 104.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…ae5cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…bb94backed No | 44c | 92.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 59c | 69.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdea9…be41backed Yes | 59c | 67.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 46c | 43.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…0897backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…ccdbbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked No | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.