Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19470a682a099477c47aee4af4834bc204669b111fae7d5b314a65a2f7800305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 675.43$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 327.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 304.89$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 293.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 247.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 151$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 135.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 130.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 128.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 109.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 35c | 108.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 65c | 104.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 89.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 89.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 77.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 73.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 17c | 68.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 64.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 59.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 58c | 57.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 35c | 57.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 53c | 56.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 36c | 55.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 52c | 52.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 20c | 50.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 46.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 44c | 45.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 42.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 55c | 42.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 66c | 36.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 35.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…dd32backed Yes | 32c | 32.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 76c | 31.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 67c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…5ab2backed No | 70c | 28.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 60c | 24.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 22.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 21.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 57c | 20.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…9e13backed No | 69c | 17.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.