TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Xavier Musketeers vs. Villanova Wildcats

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Villanova Wildcatsof Xavier Musketeers, Villanova Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,225 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd37a…2358backed Xavier Musketeers14c1,560$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.51,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Xavier Musketeers13c559.2$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.762140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Xavier Musketeers3c554.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0281528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Xavier Musketeers13c398.42$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.791,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Xavier Musketeers13c396.16$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.52,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Xavier Musketeers14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4293941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Xavier Musketeers5c258.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5118548.6%90 W · 95 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Xavier Musketeers15c199.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.882,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Xavier Musketeers13c199.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.938837.6%146 W · 242 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Xavier Musketeers15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.533445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Xavier Musketeers14c124.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4330945.6%141 W · 168 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84e6…2d55backed Xavier Musketeers16c124.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Xavier Musketeers14c122.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1824432%78 W · 166 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Xavier Musketeers56c120.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7535852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Xavier Musketeers11c110.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1155532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Xavier Musketeers16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616755.7%93 W · 74 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22be…e36ebacked Villanova Wildcats45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556036.7%22 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Xavier Musketeers14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Villanova Wildcats79c55.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4510259.8%61 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.