Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x338403f73fd94b4972f92de6f775fb560eb31bff3f06c7674f89a33a1c677fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Villanova Wildcatsof Villanova Wildcats, Xavier Musketeers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,538 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Xavier Musketeers | 56c | 144$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Villanova Wildcats | 44c | 135.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Xavier Musketeers | 45c | 109.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Villanova Wildcats | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 93.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 84.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Villanova Wildcats | 57c | 69.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Villanova Wildcats | 59c | 60.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Xavier Musketeers | 45c | 57.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…3848backed Villanova Wildcats | 54c | 55.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Xavier Musketeers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 42.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Xavier Musketeers | 44c | 38.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 38.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 36.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Villanova Wildcats | 57c | 29.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Xavier Musketeers | 43c | 29.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Villanova Wildcats | 58c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Xavier Musketeers | 41c | 28.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…b137backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-12.5)Villanova Wildcats won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Villanova WildcatsVillanova Wildcats won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 153.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.