NFL · resolved market
Will Caleb Downs be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b7b39404625d6ac26be9d8f0ab493da9e4efbd84fd2c344804049e1be60240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 77c | 565.18$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 23c | 381.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 210.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Yes | 28c | 209.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 30c | 160.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 70c | 130.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 112.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…24cabacked Yes | 24c | 101.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 24c | 74.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…c872backed Yes | 21c | 72.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 69c | 56.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…b6d1backed Yes | 66c | 44.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…73e6backed Yes | 63c | 31.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caleb Downs be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?this page
- Will Arvell Reese be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?Yes won
- Will Francis Mauigoa be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will Jordyn Tyson be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will Keldric Faulk be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will Sonny Styles be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will Ty Simpson be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.