Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ef7b7a06214f7d1051e8a76d6ceeca7b467e53a5b8f120d0557cff7dbc2663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 53c | 3,853$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x916b…ad9bbacked Yes | 51c | 3,500$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 50c | 2,454$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.84 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 1,817$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.71 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 72c | 1,590$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.24 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed No | 48c | 1,417$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 47c | 1,221$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.13 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 28c | 807.07$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.98 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 28c | 751.68$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.47 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a296backed Yes | 67c | 476.19$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 339.23$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 44c | 256.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked No | 54c | 197.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 32c | 186.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 150.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Yes | 68c | 147.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…2a12backed Yes | 28c | 118.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 50c | 84.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 79.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked Yes | 38c | 78.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…10a3backed Yes | 68c | 73.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8222…b4c6backed Yes | 53c | 60.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…3053backed Yes | 25c | 59.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked No | 48c | 51.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Yes | 69c | 36.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 34c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Yes | 67c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…00eabacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…2604backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-24?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.