Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e44c0dde093ac648997d14977b6947d81002c951ef5a488e299d018fe2c7588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.33 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 25c | 1,999$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.44 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 1,742$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.74 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 1,599$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 27c | 1,214$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.88 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 1,147$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.33 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…9e49backed Yes | 11c | 1,077$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 48c | 655.66$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.16 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 498.5$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 30c | 480.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.81 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 52c | 443.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 47c | 330.37$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 31c | 310$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 47c | 294.72$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 75c | 279.26$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 48c | 231.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 28c | 206.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed No | 53c | 192.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 36c | 182.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 21c | 162.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 47c | 142.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed No | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 16c | 91.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 35c | 89.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…272ebacked Yes | 23c | 83.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 65c | 62.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 24c | 62.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 55.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 32c | 32.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.