Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4d1eb3acd9e74aa11f0f1f38a653f9c7fd6ea159bc1cee453b072fd79f5c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,999$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.48 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a296backed Yes | 27c | 518.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 406.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.07 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Yes | 79c | 258.74$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 63c | 251.11$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 215.89$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 212.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 35c | 206.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…10a3backed Yes | 65c | 171.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 155.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 155.18$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.92 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 39c | 153.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 35c | 144$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 139$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…11a6backed Yes | 62c | 102.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…1f38backed Yes | 29c | 86.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…9e49backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…724bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 37c | 58.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 54.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 37.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…b7a9backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed Yes | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-24?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.