Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon or Trump apologize first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f8f8b4bbd0a43d96cceec8c4e5cbb1f12466cd4389bd3769fe45bf5f93b2c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elonof Elon, Trump
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ef…1e04backed Trump | 16c | 1,924$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Elon | 69c | 1,305$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.74 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Trump | 30c | 800$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…4e67backed Trump | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Elon | 66c | 459.78$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.82 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Trump | 34c | 319.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Elon | 65c | 306.01$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Elon | 66c | 301.24$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Elon | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Trump | 32c | 216$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Trump | 6c | 203.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Trump | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Elon | 72c | 186.23$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Elon | 66c | 170$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Elon | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…2e4bbacked Elon | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Trump | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Elon | 72c | 134$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Elon | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…0aacbacked Trump | 36c | 123.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Trump | 33c | 103.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Elon | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…8d00backed Trump | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Trump | 33c | 60.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…e85cbacked Elon | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Trump | 26c | 57.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Elon | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Elon | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Elon | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Elon | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Elon | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.